10 March 2017

The EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will end in around 230,000 job losses by 2023.

This is according to a new study by Dr Pierre Kohler of the United Nations and Dr Servaas Storm of the Delft University of Technology.

In a new paper in the International Journal of Political Economy, the authors used the United Nations Global Policy Model (GPM) to project that 200,000 jobs will be lost in the EU and 80,000 outside of the EU. The GPM takes into account the potential for changes in employment and income distribution, unlike the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model studies that were used to assess impact during the negotiations.

The study also found that CETA will lead to an increase in inequality and a loss of economic efficiency, with slower wage increases, and as a result of workers having less money to spend, a fall in demand for products and services that will harm economic productivity.

"Official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on CETA," the authors said. "The lack of intellectual diversity and of realism shrouding the debate around CETA's alleged economic benefits calls for an alternative assessment grounded in more realistic modeling premises which acknowledge the risks of trade liberalisation and can quantify their impact."

The UK has signed CETA, which has been approved by the EU, but it has not yet ratified the treaty in national law. So far, there has been no parliamentary debate over the proposals.